High pressure systems bring solar gains despite stormy January in Europe

In a new weekly update for pv magazine, Solcast, a DNV company, reports that January was an eventful month for European weather, with a series of named storms impacting Western Europe and Scandinavia. Solar irradiance was above average in the British Isles and around the Black Sea, where periods of high pressure allowed for clearer skies.

Intense low-pressure systems impacted Western and Northern Europe this January, bringing severe storms, heavy precipitation, and snowfall. Despite these conditions, solar irradiance was above average in the British Isles and around the Black Sea, where periods of high
pressure allowed for clearer skies. However, Scandinavia and the Baltic States faced unfavorable solar conditions, further degraded by persistent low pressure and frontal activity, according to analysis using the Solcast API.

January was an eventful month for European weather, with a series of named storms impacting Western Europe and Scandinavia. A strong North Atlantic jet stream fueled the rapid intensification of these systems, leading to extreme weather. The most notable was Storm Éowyn, which deepened rapidly off Ireland’s coast. Éowyn was one of the deepest low-pressure systems to impact the British Isles in over six decades.

Winds of severe intensity caused extensive power outages across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and Norway, with infrastructure damage reported along the storm’s path. Despite the disruptive weather, high-pressure systems between storms allowed the British Isles to receive up to 20% more sunshine than usual, boosting solar potential. Whilst dark winter days means this increase is minimal in absolute terms – it will have delivered some welcome solar generation to asset operators and grids in a period dominated by wind energy.

Meanwhile, countries surrounding the Black Sea benefitted from persistent high-pressure systems, which led to below-average precipitation and cloud cover. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria experienced irradiance levels up to 25% above seasonal norms, providing optimal conditions for solar generation. High pressure systems limited the cloud-bearing weather systems, resulting in sunnier-than-usual days for much of the region.

In contrast, Scandinavia and the Baltic States experienced a gloomy January, as frequent low-pressure systems brought persistent cloud cover and snow-laden cold fronts. This time of year typically sees low irradiance levels in Northern Europe, with Estonia averaging around 0.35 kWh per day. However, this January, irradiance levels in Estonia dropped to approximately 0.23 kWh, a significant 34% decrease. Similar reductions were recorded in Latvia, Lithuania, and other parts of Scandinavia, while northern Ukraine also experienced a 15% drop in irradiance due to prolonged cloud cover. This was despite below average precipitation and continuing drought conditions across Ukraine.

Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2km resolution globally, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms. This data is used to drive irradiance models, enabling Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud-tracking forecasts. This data is used by more than 300 companies managing over 150GW of solar assets globally.