Increased solar, wind production helps European electricity prices fall

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s latest analysis found weekly average electricity prices fell during the last week of January, despite an increase in gas and CO2 futures prices, thanks to an increase in solar and wind production and drop in electricity demand.

Average electricity prices fell across the major European markets during the final week of January, according to analysis by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

Compared to the week prior, the consultancy recorded a drop in the weekly price average across the Belgian, British, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Nordic, Portuguese and Spanish markets.

The trend led to weekly averages below €120 ($124.47)/MWh in all analyzed markets except the British and Italian markets, where the weekly averages stood at €136.76/MWh and €141.95/MWh. The Nordic market continued to have the lowest average price, recording €40.19/MWh last week.

AleaSoft attributed the downward trend to a drop in electricity demand across most markets, alongside an increase in solar and wind energy production.

The price drops were recorded despite gas and CO2 futures prices increasing throughout the week, reaching a weekly settlement price of €53.24/MWh on January 31, which is the highest AleaSoft has recorded since October 2023.

This had a knock-on effect on electricity prices last weekend, with most analyzed markets recording their highest hourly electricity prices of the week on Sunday February 2.

AleaSoft is predicting that trend will have continued into the week commencing February 3, leading to an increase in weekly average electricity prices across most markets during the first full week of February. Increased electricity demand alongside a drop in wind energy production are also expected to contribute to the upward trajectory in prices.

Solar energy production increased across the French, German, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish markets last week, continuing a trend from the week prior.

The Portuguese and Spanish markets broke their records for solar production during a day in January on the final day of the month, recording 17 GWh and 119 GWh. The French market exceeded its record for solar production during a day in February on the second day of the month, totaling 62 GWh.

For the week starting February 3, AleaSoft is predicting further increases in solar production in the Italian, German and Spanish markets.