AleaSoft notes moderate change to electricity prices in Europe

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting finds the major European electricity markets had a mixed evolution in their prices last week, with some impacted by rising gas prices. Meanwhile, Portugal broke its record for daily solar production.

Electricity prices in the main European markets during the third week of May showed a mixed performance when compared to the week prior, according to analysis from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

The consultancy noted weekly average electricity prices increased in the Belgian, British, French and Spanish markets but decreased in the Dutch, German, Italian, Nordic and Portuguese markets.

AleaSoft attributed price drops in Germany, Italy and Portugal to an increase in wind energy production, while a decline in the technology led to price hikes in France and Spain. The consultancy added that France also saw a rise in electricity demand. Price decreases were recorded in some markets despite an increase in the weekly price of gas and CO2 emission allowances.

Weekly averages were below €60 ($68.06)/MWh in the French, Nordic, Portuguese and Spanish markets, with the Spanish market recording the lowest average, at €18.19/MWh. The Italian market had the highest average, at €95.80/MWh, while the Belgian, British, Dutch and German markets all had averages above €60/MWh.

All anlyzed markets, bar the British and Italian, recorded negative hourly prices last week. The Italian market registered three hours with zero prices on the afternoon of May 18 for the second time this year, a pattern last seen in 2020.

The fourth week of May is expected to bring an increase in electricity prices across most analyzed markets, AleaSoft says, but prices in the Portuguese and Spanish markets are forecast to fall thanks to an increase in solar and wind energy production.

AleaSoft also found solar energy production increased week-on-week in France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain last week.

Germany recorded its highest ever daily value for a day in May, reaching 426 GWh on May 13, which represents its second highest value in its history. Two days later, Portugal broke its record for daily solar production, totalling 26 GWh. Italy then recorded its highest ever value during a day in May when it hit 147 GWh on May 18.

AleaSoft is forecasting the week commencing May 19 will have brought a further increase in solar production in Spain, but a drop in Germany and Italy.