Franco-German consortium uses satellite data for PV forecasting

A Franco-German consortium is launching the EO4ER project, which uses next-generation satellite data to anticipate the impact of variable solar generation on electricity grids. Through a digital twin prototype, it aims to refine intraday forecasts and integrate the effects of climate change on PV energy production.

From pv magazine France

Anticipating the impact of variable production from PV systems on the operation of low-voltage grids is one of the major objectives of the Earth Observation for Energy Risks (EO4ER) applied research project, which uses next-generation satellite data to produce solar production forecasts on an hourly scale.

EO4ER has been selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) as part of the Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative, an ambitious European program aimed at gradually developing an ultra-precise digital twin of the Earth to monitor and simulate natural phenomena, risks and associated human activities.

In this context, EO4ER is the only project selected in the field of energy. It is led by a Franco-German consortium bringing together three players: OHB Digital Services, a company specializing in the development of software and digital solutions for the space industry; the Smart Grids research group of the Hochschule Ulm (THU), which conducts applied work on the intelligent management of electricity grids; and Reuniwatt, a company that designs solutions for estimating and forecasting cloud cover and solar energy production based on satellite and meteorological data.

The project was presented in early February to ESA teams and other DestinE winners at the ESA Digital Twin Earth Components: Open Science Meeting, held in Frascati, Italy. Launched in October 2024, the EO4ER program is studying two use cases, namely the daily forecasting of solar deliverability for low-voltage systems, and the assessment of the impact of climate change on photovoltaic production. The first results are scheduled for November 2025.

A digital twin, two use cases

In concrete terms, the project plans to develop a prototype digital twin component capable of modelling the village of Hittistetten in Germany. This location has been selected as a test area to validate the methods developed. A digital twin is a faithful digital replica of an operation or system, used for different purposes, in particular to make comparisons or simulate scenarios.

The village of Hittistetten was chosen to serve as a test area for the low-voltage solar energy component due to its high rate of photovoltaic equipment: 80 of the 120 homes there already have solar panels. The residents have also demonstrated a strong desire to participate in the energy transition, as has the local low-voltage network manager who is also involved in the project.

The first use case aims to develop solar production forecasts on the scale of the low-voltage grid, with intraday granularity, thus allowing precise forecasts over a few hours. This information will be integrated into a visualization tool, developed by OHB Digital Services, intended for the network manager and consumers.

“The idea was to use the improvements made by the new generation of MTG geostationary satellites,” Marion Lafuma, head of business development at Reuniwatt, told pv magazine France. And for good reason: the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellite series, operational since December 2024, offers a spatial resolution of 500 m (compared to 1 to 3 km for the previous MSG satellites) and a temporal resolution of 10 minutes (compared to 15 minutes for the MSG). The EO4ER project will therefore also be used to compare the results obtained using these new Earth observation capabilities with those from previous technologies.

“Short-term forecasting based on MTG data allows distribution network operators to ensure secure operation of their infrastructures, even with more intensive use due to photovoltaic injection,” said Gerd Heilscher, head of the smart grid research group at THU.

The second use case relates to climatology since it aims to look at the impacts of climate change on the production of solar panels. “This is a subject that seems to be emerging among our customers and more broadly in the solar sector,” Lafuma explained. In this case, the study is not limited to Hittistetten: several geographical areas will be taken into account. The parameters analyzed will include temperature, snow, wind, as well as other meteorological data, put into perspective with different IPCC scenarios. “Massive investments in renewable energy sources are exposed to the risks of climate change and require tools to manage them,” said Heilscher.