Brazil power reforms to boost renewables – GlobalData

GlobalData’s latest report, “Brazil Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035,” reveals that Brazil’s cumulative installed power capacity is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7 percent between 2025 and 2035.

Over this timeframe, renewable capacity share is forecast to rise from 48.0 percent to nearly 62 percent, while renewable electricity generation is forecast to approach 50 percent of the total matrix.

Brazil has the resource base and investor interest to broaden its renewable power mix substantially. Solar PV will remain the principal near-term growth engine, while offshore wind represents a longer-term opportunity. The pace at which offshore projects progress will depend on clear rules for auctions, seabed leasing, environmental licensing, and grid access, commented Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData.

In the near term, solar PV will be the primary engine of capacity additions, supported by deep permitting queues alongside projects under construction and financed.

Onshore wind continues to expand across Brazil’s high-yield Northeast region, while natural gas capacity under construction provides critical flexible balancing to manage hydrological risk during dry periods.

Solar PV is on track to surpass large hydropower as Brazil’s single largest power source in terms of installed capacity by 2035. As variable generation expands rapidly across the Northeast and distributed solar penetrates distribution grids, expanding transmission corridors and reinforcing system reliability become urgent priorities. The 2025 Power Sector Reform Law supports this transition by gradually opening the free contracting market to all consumers and establishing a framework for grid-scale energy storage, Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan said.

Investment activity reflects the evolving priorities. Brazil’s power sector is forecast to attract close to US$93 billion in new capital investment between 2026 and 2030, with solar PV securing approximately 58 percent of total expenditure, followed by onshore wind and natural gas.

Furthermore, the enactment of the Low Carbon Hydrogen Framework positions Brazil to leverage its low-cost renewable power for domestic industrial decarbonization and clean fuel exports.

Brazil enters the next decade with robust fundamentals: high-quality renewable resources, an expanding free power market, and significant investor appetite. Meeting long-term targets—such as cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 59 percent to 67 percent by 2035—will require synchronized execution across grid expansion, licensing approvals, and regulatory certainty for storage and offshore wind to ensure the matrix remains clean, secure, and affordable, concluded Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan.