U.S. solar manufacturing capex clears $2.5 billion, up from $150 million in 2020

The race to establish a secure domestic solar supply chain is rapidly accelerating as federal incentives and tariff enforcement reshape investment strategies. The shifting dynamics of the domestic supply chain will take center stage at the upcoming pv magazine USA Solar Manufacturing USA event in Austin, Texas this September, where Finlay Colville, head of Terawatt PV Research, will serve as conference chair. Speaking on a recent Roth Capital Partners webinar, Colville detailed how the U.S. market emerging as a destination for clean energy capital.

Coville said capital is rebalancing away from historical reliance on finished imports toward localized value chain integration. Annual U.S. solar capex is projected to scale from just $150 million in 2020 to approximately $2.5 billion by the end of this year, driven by strict trade enforcement and federal incentives.

Domestic cells 

The constant threat of anti-dumping and countervailing duties has altered procurement strategies for domestic module assemblers. Relying on imported components from traditional Southeast Asian hubs is increasingly viewed as a high-risk long-term strategy, pushing capital toward domestic cell capacity. 

Terawatt’s bottom-up tracking of 30 to 40 U.S. manufacturers indicates that the 2027 forecast skews heavily toward adding cell infrastructure. The near-term expansion is driven largely by Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, and Talon PV. Together, these three entities represent a substantial share of the cell capacity expected to come online over the next 12 to 18 months, alongside another 1 GW to 2 GW of cell lines planned at existing module sites through 2028.

Despite the downstream momentum, upstream structural bottlenecks persist. Polysilicon remains a constraint for the domestic value chain, given that establishing new polysilicon refinement capacity involves significantly higher capital intensity and longer construction timelines than expanding module assembly lines. 

The domestic scaling race features several distinct manufacturing models with varying approaches to capital deployment, said Coville. First Solar stands out as one of the most successful execution models in solar history. Despite utilizing a thin film technology platform with lower absolute efficiency than competing crystalline silicon products, First Solar has sustained strong margins and market share over multiple decades through precise policy engagement and capital allocation. 

Trina Solar has emerged as a highlight of recent domestic investment, successfully ramping its U.S. module lines from a yield standpoint. The next major test relies on replicating operational efficiency at the cell level. 

Other players present wildcard strategies, said Coville. Corning maintains a capex-light operational footprint with roughly 2 GW of ingot and wafer capacity, with no near-term expansion plans on the books.  

Tesla has yet to break ground on expanded domestic solar manufacturing facilities, meaning 2027 will likely serve as a heavy spending year for equipment and facility development if it intends to meet scaling goals. 

Technology fragmentation and supply risks 

The domestic technology mix remains split roughly evenly among PERC, TOPCon, and Heterojunction lines.  

However, ongoing Section 337 patent litigation initiated by First Solar has introduced regulatory and legal risks for domestic TOPCon production, causing some new entrants to hesitate before committing capital to that pathway. Meanwhile, next-generation perovskite technology continues to attract substantial institutional funding, but it still lacks a multi gigawatt field track record and faces an extended commercialization timeline. 

On the equipment side, potential Chinese export controls on manufacturing hardware remain difficult to quantify before shipments physically leave port. Chinese equipment vendors currently face little pressure to secure U.S. factory orders. These suppliers have adjusted internal headcounts, secured substantial order books from expanding Indian factories, and shifted focus toward China growing domestic semiconductor tool market. 

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